Taiwan in the near future

The United States feeds the independence aspirations of certain political and oligarchic sectors of Taiwan. If Taiwan declares itself an independent country, it is certain that China will invade and recover Taiwan.

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When the Chinese Empire was the largest economy in the world, Taiwan appears in history with the name of Formosa (beautiful) island, the name the Portuguese gave it when they established a colony there to trade with China.


The island was later Spanish, Dutch and during the Second World War it was occupied by Japan. With the defeat of Japan, the island returned to China under the control of the Chinese government recognized by the United States and its allies: the Kuomintang chaired by General Chiang Kai shek. When Chiang Kai shek was defeated by Mao during the Chinese civil war that succeeded the Japanese occupation, the Kuomintang government, once overpowered, fled to Taiwan where it is in the status resembling something like a government in exile, under the protection of the United States since October 1, 1949


Taiwan is a central issue for the policy of the true Chinese government that resides in Beijing and which is the one that in effect governs China and as such recognized by all countries that have independent interests that want to negotiate and trade with the country that has recovered its rank as the world's largest economy.


Such a fact is so obvious that the government of Washington itself recognizes the government that resides in Beijing is the government that exercises effective sovereignty over China.


I have chosen the topic of Taiwan, to inform my readers about the background of a conflict with worldwide repercussions that may begin on that island.


The American countries that, due to pressure from the United States and to the detriment of their own economic interests, still recognize the government installed in Taiwan as the representative of China are the following: Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Haiti and Paraguay.


One symptom of how explosive the Taiwan issue is for Beijing is that, after every hostile allusion to China from the United States, whether after the bilateral meeting in Anchorage (Alaska) or now during the NATO summit in Brussels, China reacts by sending squadrons of planes to fly over Taiwan's airspace, without previous notice.


It is a clear warning to the United States that they may find themselves at war with China in very unfavorable conditions.


Indeed, the United States feeds the independence aspirations of certain political and oligarchic sectors of Taiwan. If Taiwan declares itself an independent country, it is certain that China will invade and recover Taiwan, no matter how much the politicians that Washington sends to visit the island (they do not dare to send diplomats) assure the Taiwanese independentists that if they declare themselves an independent country “They will not be abandoned". It is true that countries that right now like to confuse the Taipei government with the Chinese government will automatically recognize Taiwan's independence. What is the United States going to do if China actually recovers Taiwan? It is certain that it will refrain from any military reaction that it cannot sustain or justify an action with the potential of world war and serious risk in the eyes of its own citizens or in the face of world public opinion that recognizes the Beijing government’s right to unify the entire territory recognized as Chinese, thus ending a civil war whose conclusion was postponed since 1949.


The MERCOSUR countries could exert some pressure on Paraguay to wake up to the reality that China is a single country governed from Beijing and that it is already the largest growth market in the world. Venezuela could exert some diplomatic pressure in Central America so that our friends there become aware of their national interests in the face of this evident new economic reality.


Almeria, 16 / 06/2021


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